The Tigers Wouldn’t Trade Dave Dombrowski

Playing armchair general manager is a fond pastime for many a baseball fan. Whenever a GM makes a trade, the reaction by the fan base (and bloggers) is immediate – and usually negative. But Detroit Tigers’ fans need fear not, because they’re in great hands with Dave Dombrowski when it comes to trades.

Dombrowski has been general manager of the Tigers since 2002. In that time, he has made no fewer than eight outstanding trades while also pulling his club from the depths of the American League Central (119 losses in 2003) to perennial World Series contenders. While the general manager’s job is always multi-faceted, Dombrowski takes it to a new level. He’s also the team’s chief executive officer and president.

But it’s not all getting other GMs to lay golden eggs. Dombrowski has a top-five payroll to work with and, as you’ll see, his decisions about how to spend that money often leave something to be desired. Let’s look at both sides of the Tigers’ GM.

Big Trades

Jan. 8, 2004 (+18.9 WAR)

The first significant trade win for Dombrowski in Detroit was when he acquired shortstop Carlos Guillen from the Seattle Mariners for infielder Ramon Santiago and third baseman Juan Gonzalez (no, not the Juan Gonzalez you’re thinking of). Guillen had been a solid performer for the Mariners, especially since he had taken over for Alex Rodriguez. He accumulated 7.1 WAR in 488 games from 1998 through 2003, and a triple slash line of .264/.335/.383. Those numbers aren’t great, but for a shortstop playing half his games in a pitcher-friendly park, it also isn’t terrible. Things changed when he got to Detroit.

Playing shortstop, Guillen was a fixture in the Tigers’ lineup in four of his first five seasons in the Motor City (he was injured in 2005, but still posted a .320/.368/.434 line). He was a three-time All-Star (2004, 2007, 2008) and posted a .308/.377/.493 slash line and 18.9 WAR. He was one of the game’s best offensive shortstops before moving to more of a utility role in 2008. Guillen was predominantly a third baseman, but he also dabbled in left field and at first base.

Guillen was an MVP candidate on the 2006 American League champion Tigers squad, posting a career-best 6.0 WAR. He was the best position player on a team that included Magglio Ordonez, a budding star in Curtis Granderson and, believe it or not, a productive Brandon Inge.

He would finish his Tigers’ (and major league) career as an injury-riddled player who was a shadow of his former self, but the impact he made on the Tigers and their turnaround from league punchline to league powerhouse cannot be understated.

Santiago had finished his first professional season in 2003 as a .225/.292/.284 hitter, yet the Mariners had enough interest in both him and Gonzalez to ship Guillen away. Santiago played only 27 games with the Mariners before they released him. Dombrowski and the Tigers brought him back in 2006, while Gonzalez never played an inning in the majors. This is arguably one of Dombrowski’s best trades.

June 8, 2005 (+15.3 WAR)

The Tigers were going nowhere in 2005, and the Phillies needed a reliever to shore up their bullpen. So, Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a Ugueth Urbina-for-Placido Polanco deal. This ended up being a trade on the level of the Guillen deal.

Polanco accumulated 15.8 WAR from the day he came over in 2005 through the 2009 season, while Urbina gave the Phillies half a win and was out of baseball after the 2005 season. Urbina was accused and subsequently convicted of attempted murder on his Venezuelan property. He served nearly six years in prison. Polanco had the best years of his professional career in Detroit, and was a key cog in the Tigers’ resurgence. But the biggest cog was yet to come.

Dec. 4, 2007 (+28.6 WAR)

Miguel Cabrera broke into the majors as a 20-year-old for the then-Florida Marlins. He was a member of the 2003 World Series champion club and was a true “can’t-miss” prospect. In 87 games, he amassed a .268/.325/.468 triple slash and 1.0 WAR as a split left fielder/third baseman for the Fish. He finished fifth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting and 27th in the NL MVP voting.

At the time of his trade to Detroit, he was 24 years old and coming off a .965 OPS season. Players in their early-to-mid-20s with numbers like that don’t usually get traded, but Dombrowski jumped all over the opportunity to nab the future Hall of Famer.

It wasn’t a cheap trade by any means. The Tigers gave up Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. At the time, Maybin was the No. 6 prospect in all of baseball, while Miller was No. 10, as ranked by Baseball America. Rarely do top 10 prospects get traded these days, let alone two top 10 guys in the same deal. But Cabrera and to a lesser extent, Dontrelle Willis, made the risk worth it. In hindsight, Dombrowski would have been justified in dealing Justin Verlander to land Cabrera, but the Marlins went for the prospects – and it’s hard to blame them.

Maybin was one of the best athletes in the game and Miller was the No. 6 selection in the 2006 MLB Draft. He was projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, but his signing bonus demands caused him to slip to the Tigers at six. Maybin has produced two solid seasons so far (4.2 and 2.3 WAR in 2011 and 2012), and while Miller never made it as a starter, he’s one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball. Neither did much of anything for the Marlins, though. The other players Dombrowski sent to Florida were of no consequence: Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz and Mike Rabelo have posted 1.1 WAR combined, with Badenhop accounting for the bulk of that productivity.

This is a trade that should go down as one of the best ever made. Even though Willis didn’t work out well for the Tigers (he was never the same after the electric beginning of his career), Cabrera’s two American League MVPs, Triple Crown season, five All-Star appearances and 38.7 WAR since being traded make Detroit the clear winner in this deal.

Dec. 8, 2009 (+19.7 WAR)

This deal was one of the largest Dombrowski has ever completed (three teams, seven players), and, once again, he got the best of it. Curtis Granderson was a fan favorite and a budding star center fielder, but the Tigers, coming off a disappointing 74-88 season in 2008, needed a starter to pair with Verlander. Enter Max Scherzer, who always had the arm talent to succeed in the majors, but whose durability was an open question at the time. After his first full season in Arizona, the Diamondbacks were looking to shake things up a bit. They saw a chance to add two starters for the price of one, and that’s what they did.

In a three-team trade, the Tigers sent Edwin Jackson – coming off a career-best 2009 season – and Granderson to acquire Scherzer, Austin Jackson, a quality left-handed reliever in Phil Coke and a left-handed pitching prospect in Daniel Schlereth. The Yankees ended up with Granderson, while the Diamondbacks ended up with Jackson and Ian Kennedy.

Scherzer has emerged as one of baseball’s best pitchers, and has only gotten better in Detroit. He won the 2013 AL Cy Young Award and became Detroit’s ace, with Verlander scuffling. Over the last two seasons, Scherzer is 38-8. Yes, the pitching win is an overrated statistic, but 38-8 is still impressive, as is his 2.80 fielding independent pitching (FIP) in that same time frame.

This trade was well-balanced, but Dombrowski was able to land a future Cy Young Award winner and a nearly 16-win outfielder (over 4.5 years). It’s hard to explain how Dombrowski can come out on the winning end of yet another huge trade, but he did. Less than two months ago, Dombrowski spun Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly to acquire a former Cy Young Award winner in David Price.

Honorable mentions

• When Dombrowski gave up a top 25 prospect in Jacob Turner and a couple of spare parts to land Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante, some folks raised their eyebrows. It’s always a risky proposition to trade top prospects for potential rental players (Scott Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano and Zack Wheeler-for-Carlos Beltran quickly come to mind as examples), but Dombrowski made this one work. Sanchez was set to be a free agent following the 2012 season, and he almost signed with the Chicago Cubs. But the Tigers were able to retain him – one of the rare signings that has actually worked out well for Dombrowksi (more on that shortly). Turner was designated for assignment by the Marlins earlier this season, but he still has a quality arm that the Cubs will look to salvage.
• The 2013 winter trade of Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler looked a little one-sided at first. Fielder had a rough (by his standards) second season in Detroit, while Kinsler was coming off a good-not-great season with the Rangers. But the key factor here is money, the value of which is hard to quantify for baseball’s fifth-highest payroll. But Dombrowski was able to save $46 million over the life of Kinsler’s deal by trading Fielder to the Rangers. This counts Kinsler’s deal and the $30 million the Tigers sent to the Lone Star state. Oh, and it appears the Tigers got the better player. Check back in a couple of years, as this one may need to bump up and be added to Dombrowski’s greatest hits collection.

Big Signings

A GM’s job is tough, and he has a lot of people working under him to relay information and help make good, informed, sound decisions. But, there is a price to pay when it comes to being the face of the front office.

Dombrowski hasn’t fared well when doling out multi-million dollar contracts. Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million came with a ton of risk, and seemed a bit more than necessary. Yes, the projected 30-plus home run power Fielder was to bring was nice, but it also meant moving Cabrera off first base. Cabrera, believe it or not, came up as a shortstop, but was moved to third base rather quickly. But many scouting reports would indicate his ultimate destination was first base – which is where he played when he began his Tigers career. Luckily for Dombrowksi, he was bailed out by being able to trade Fielder for a quality player in Kinsler and moved Cabrera back to a much more palatable defensive position.

Now, Fielder wasn’t ever going to be the face of the Detroit Tigers. That mantle is reserved for Cabrera, and his massive contract extension will come back to haunt Dombrowski and the organization.

Cabrera’s new deal doesn’t even start until 2016. He will make at least $248 million through 2024. He also has a $30 million club option in 2024 ($8 million buyout) and a $30 million club option for 2025. By the time the 2024 season begins, Cabrera will be 41 years old. He doesn’t have the body type to produce at a $30 million level come his age-41 season. This deal, while it was necessary, will not end well for the Tigers. Dombrowski won’t lose his job because of it (if he’s still Tigers’ GM come 2024), but he’ll have to make some creative moves to justify Cabrera’s deal. Cabrera, despite a somewhat down season (an .894 OPS is “down” for him), is still one of the best hitters in baseball, and should be able to hit well for a few more years. He’ll likely still be a good hitter as he enters his late-30s, but he won’t be the player he was.

And then there’s the Justin Verlander deal. That is likely to be even worse.

Verlander is three years removed from his MVP performance, and now some have wondered if a once-dominant starting pitcher would be better off pitching out of the bullpen. That isn’t going to happen anytime soon, but if he doesn’t figure out his woes, it’s something the Tigers might have to entertain. Despite a high payroll, the Tigers probably couldn’t justify having a $28 million-per-season reliever.

The 31-year-old is in the midst of his worst season since 2008, when he went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. He has a similarly high ERA this season, and while his FIP doesn’t exactly match it, his numbers are concerning — especially given the biggest alarm bell, which is his diminishing velocity. From 2009 through 2012, Verlander averaged at least 94.7 mph on his fastball. In 2009-2011, the lowest velocity he had was 95 mph. Last season, he was at 94 mph. This season, it’s at 93.1. That’s still a pretty good fastball, but for a guy who has been billed a power pitcher, that isn’t going to play as well as it did before.

Not only has his velocity dipped, the effectiveness of his off-speed pitches has also gotten worse. His curve ball and change-up have been well above-average in his career. In 2014, both are among the worst in the game. According to FanGraphs, His curve is -11.9 runs below average, worst in the majors among qualified starters. His change-up is much better at -1.7, but it’s also the worst mark of his career.

This is all concerning because the contract extension he signed prior to the 2013 season doesn’t even take effect until next year. Yes, the first two years of the extension replace the last two years of his previous deal, but they were both set at $20 million per season. So, the five-year, $140 million extension is something the Tigers and Dombrowski might regret (he also has a $22 million vesting option for 2020). If Dombrowksi had waited, he might have been able to get a better deal for the franchise’s best pitcher. Unlike Cabrera, Verlander hasn’t shown signs of regaining his old form. The only saving grace is Verlander’s deal will expire much sooner than Cabrera’s.

It’s tough to find the perfect GM, meaning a guy who is great at making trades and great at signing players to contracts and extensions. Dombrowski has done a hell of a job in Detroit overall. He shines when it comes to making trades, falters when it comes to signing players. That’s not to say the two are mutually exclusive. He’s made some mediocre trades (Doug Fister to Washington) and made some great signings (Anibal Sanchez), but the high-profile transactions definitely favor his trades rather than his signings.

Not everyone can be great at everything. Detroit Tigers fans, and baseball fans in general, should be happy to have a more-than-competent general manager in charge. Dave Dombrowksi makes trading season much more fun than it already is, and he’s really good at it. Failures in the free agent minefield and overvaluing your own players are hardly traits unique to Dombrowski. Improving in these areas is always a dance, and certainly he needs to do so, but the creativity that Dombrowski regularly displays is hard to find.