The virtual 1969-76 Phillies, Cardinals, and Mets (Part 8: 1975-76)
It’s been a long journey, but now we’re finally in the home stretch. Our Cardinals have been dominant, capturing four division titles in the past five seasons, while our Phillies and Mets have managed just one flag apiece.
Phillies: Actual Cardinals: Actual Mets: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1969 63 99 5 645 745 87 75 4 595 540 100 62 1 632 541
1970 73 88 5 594 730 76 86 4 744 747 83 79 3 695 630
1971 67 95 6 558 688 90 72 2 739 699 83 79 3 588 550
1972 59 97 6 503 625 75 81 4 568 600 83 73 3 528 578
1973 71 91 6 642 717 81 81 2 643 603 82 79 1 608 588
1974 80 82 3 676 701 86 75 2 677 643 71 91 5 572 646
1975 86 76 2 735 694 82 80 3T 662 689 82 80 3T 646 625
Phillies: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual Mets: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1969 64 98 5 611 691 98 64 2 659 528 101 61 1 638 550
1970 77 84 5 596 691 80 82 4 742 703 84 78 3 687 619
1971 86 76 4 629 598 102 60 1 787 647 89 73 3 643 561
1972 68 88 5 585 638 105 51 1 675 478 93 63 2 551 523
1973 93 69 1 680 572 80 82 3 621 593 91 70 2 625 539
1974 86 76 2 679 654 100 61 1 738 591 83 79 4 648 622
1975 82 80 4 715 712 98 64 1 762 652 92 70 2 656 565
Last year, our St. Louis outfit shrugged off the loss of a superstar cleanup hitter and waltzed to yet another victory. In this final chapter, is there any hope for a different outcome?
The 1975-76 offseason: Actual deals we will not make
Oct. 20, 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Willie Davis to the San Diego Padres for outfielder Dick Sharon.
We have no 3-Dog to trade. (Nothing against the immortal Dick Sharon.)
Oct. 28, 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Mike Garman and a player to be named later to the Chicago Cubs for shortstop Don Kessinger. (On April 5, 1976, the Cardinals sent infielder Bobby Hrapmann to the Cubs, completing the deal.)
Kessinger has long been a fine player, but at this point he’d be no particular upgrade over the journeymen our Cardinals have sharing the shortstop position.
Dec. 8, 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals traded third baseman Ken Reitz to the San Francisco Giants for pitcher Pete Falcone.
So why, you ask, are we not accepting this kind offer from the Giants? Falcone is a hard-throwing southpaw who’s blown through the minor leagues in a year and a half, and then posted a solid rookie year as a full-time starter in the majors at the age of 21. Reitz is a snappy-fielding 24-year-old third baseman who can hit a semi-soft .270, never draw a walk to save his life, and be literally outrun by most catchers. Why not say “yes” before Horace Stoneham gets a chance to think again about the last trade he will ever make?
Because in an exercise such as this, we must do our best to be realistic. And a key factor to bear in mind when considering this trade is that in reality, Reitz was at this point an established regular of three years, and had been voted the National League’s Gold Glove third baseman for 1975. The Ken Reitz acquired by Stoneham was not only a hometown San Francisco/Daly City boy, he was broadly considered—not wisely considered, but broadly considered—a young low-grade star.*
The media and fans perceived this deal as an immediate-term improvement to the Giants, and, to be fair, just about everyone (including Stoneham) properly understood that young pitchers, no matter how impressive, are a high-risk proposition (as Falcone would go on to all-too-vividly illustrate).
But, importantly, in our scenario, Reitz has been deployed strictly as a backup (Joe Torre’s understudy), his common appearance being a late-inning defensive replacement. In our scenario, Reitz would be perceived at this point as a capable young utilityman, a candidate to become a first-stringer, but by no means a star of any grade. And realistically, not even the septuagenarian Horace Stoneham would offer the just-turned-22-year-old Falcone straight up for that guy.
And our Cardinals think Reitz can continue to be of more use to us, still in a calibrated manner, than whatever less-than-Falcone might plausibly be made available from the Giants’ roster. So, no deal.
Dec. 9, 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Ron Reed to the Philadelphia Phillies for outfielder Mike Anderson.
As we’ve observed:
Anderson was a toolsy athlete who’d once appeared ticketed for stardom, but by this point in his mid-20s it was clear that all he’d ever be was a utility guy. Reed was a veteran who’d also never broken through as a star, but had instead put together a solid career as a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
But Reed presented an interesting profile: a durable strike-throwing right-hander, just the sort of so-so starting pitcher who often thrives when shifted to the bullpen in his early 30s. Recent examples of talents similar to Reed who’d done just that included Ron Kline, Pedro Ramos, Orlando Pena, Mudcat Grant, and Dave Giusti.
So, while our Phillies would be fine with this one, our Cardinals will think better of it.
Dec. 10, 1975: The Philadelphia Phillies traded pitchers Dick Ruthven and Roy Thomas and infielder-outfielder Alan Bannister to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher Jim Kaat and shortstop Mike Buskey.
Following an early-30s lull, the big, strong, always-popular veteran Kaat has rebounded to deliver back-to-back 20-win seasons at ages 35 and 36. That’s marvelous, but consider our Phillies skeptical that he’s going to keep cranking those out. For his part, Ruthven hasn’t yet turned the corner we think he might, but he’s still under 25 and is an established, durable major league starter. We have to recognize that over the balance of the next five years, Ruthven is probably going to be the one deliver more value.
Dec. 12, 1975: The New York Mets traded outfielder Rusty Staub and pitcher Bill Laxton to the Detroit Tigers for pitcher Mickey Lolich and outfielder Billy Baldwin.
What a week for wonderful old American League southpaws to be welcomed into the National League East. Just as we love Kitty Kaat, we love us some Mickey Lolich. Alas our Mets don’t have Staub, nor are we willing to part with any of the serious bats we do have.
Feb. 3, 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals purchased pitcher Tom Walker from the Detroit Tigers.
March 16, 1976: The New York Mets traded outfielder Bob Gallagher to the San Francisco Giants for outfielder Leon Brown.
April 1, 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies signed outfielder Bobby Tolan as a free agent.
April 8, 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitchers Ken Reynolds and Bob Stewart to the San Diego Padres for pitcher Danny Frisella.
No interest in any of these guys.
The 1975-76 offseason: Deals we will invoke
Oct., 1975: The Philadelphia Phillies sold pitcher Tommy Moore to the Texas Rangers.
Oct., 1975: The Philadelphia Phillies sold pitcher Mike Wallace to the Baltimore Orioles.
Clearing some room on the 40-man.
Nov., 1975: The New York Mets traded outfielder-first baseman John Milner and pitchers Clay Kirby and Bill Laxton to the Philadelphia Phillies for pitcher Grant Jackson, catcher John Stearns, and outfielder-first baseman Bruce Boisclair.
Our Mets are pretty sure that, his poor 1975 results notwithstanding, Milner will re-emerge as a darn good young hitter. But we have the luxury of not needing to find out. Our Phillies, meanwhile, are ready to go in a different direction in left field. So, everybody wins: our Mets get a bullpen upgrade plus a remarkably toolsy young catcher, and our Phils get an appealing left field option plus a couple of enigmatic arms.
Dec. 12, 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Wayne Nordhagen and pitcher Greg Terlecky to the Chicago White Sox for infielder Lee Richard.
Actually it was Buddy Bradford in place of Nordhagen. So sue us if we have a soft spot for Bee Bee.
Dec., 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals sold third baseman-first baseman Joe Torre to the Baltimore Orioles.
We’re ever grateful for the terrific run he’s delivered in St. Louis, but it’s time for our Cardinals to bring in a new primary third baseman.
Feb., 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies sold outfielder Luis Melendez to the Montreal Expos.
Feb., 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals sold infielder Jerry DaVanon to the New York Mets.
Feb., 1976: The New York Mets released infielder Tony Taylor.
Roster adjustments in preparation for spring training.
March 2, 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies traded second baseman Ted Sizemore to the Los Angeles Dodgers for outfielder Willie Crawford.
Actually it was the Cardinals making this trade for Crawford. Our Phils will make the same call.
March 3, 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies sold outfielder Rich Coggins to the New York Yankees.
And with Crawford on board, we’ll give this guy’s stalled career another fresh start elsewhere.
March, 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals sold pitcher Jim Willoughby to the Boston Red Sox.
March, 1976: The New York Mets released pitcher Ken Sanders.
March, 1976: The New York Mets sold catcher Charlie Sands to the Oakland Athletics.
March, 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies sold pitcher Clay Kirby to the Montreal Expos.
March, 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies sold outfielder Mike Anderson to the Minnesota Twins.
April 1, 1976: The Philadelphia Phillies traded pitcher Dave Giusti to the Pittsburgh Pirates for pitcher Mark Mercer and cash.
April 8, 1976: The New York Mets sold pitcher Wayne Simpson to the California Angels.
Final roster pruning as Opening Day approaches.
The 1976 season: Actual deals we will not make
May 19, 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Luis Melendez to the San Diego Padres for pitcher Bill Greif.
June 7, 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Danny Frisella to the Milwaukee Brewers for a player to be named later. (On June 23, 1976, the Brewers sent outfielder Sam Mejias to the Cardinals, completing the deal.)
No, thanks.
June 15, 1976: The St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder-first baseman Reggie Smith to the Los Angeles Dodgers for catcher-outfielder Joe Ferguson, outfielder Bob Detherage, and infielder-outfielder Freddie Tisdale.
The Cardinals’ trade of Steve Carlton for Rick Wise in 1972 was, of course, one of the more lopsided boo-boos in the annals of trading. However, St. Louis GM Bing Devine salvaged the situation by stealing Bernie Carbo for Joe Hague, and then packaging Carbo along with Wise to yield Reggie Smith. To be sure, the parlay of Carlton-for-Smith didn’t quite balance out, but it wasn’t too bad.
But the frenetic Devine couldn’t be satisfied with that. Spooked by Smith’s chronic nagging injuries, Devine bailed on the switch-hitting slugger after just two-plus seasons and cashed him in at the age of 31 for Joe Ferguson—a fine ballplayer by all means, but nothing resembling Smith’s equal. Thus the parlay had become the rather ridiculous Carlton-for-Ferguson.
That was bad enough, but then Devine soon compounded it by flipping Ferguson for Larry Dierker, at exactly the point Dierker’s arm was about to dissolve into powdery ash. Thus in a span of just over five years, the Cardinals had methodically transformed future Hall of Famer Lefty Carlton, with 252 wins yet to be delivered, into the sad end of the line for Larry Dierker.
July 21, 1976: The New York Mets traded third baseman Wayne Garrett and outfielder Del Unser to the Montreal Expos for outfielders Pepe Mangual and Jim Dwyer.
The 24-year-old Mangual does appear to be a potential star (though far from an actual one), but he meets no need on our Mets. (No one anticipates that Mangual’s bat would utterly and irretrievably implode upon arrival in New York.)
The 1976 season: Deals we will invoke
April 21, 1976: The New York Mets purchased catcher Tim Blackwell from the Boston Red Sox.
Actually it was the Phillies picking up this spare part. Our Mets will do it instead, in response to Milt May’s broken ankle.
1976 season results
Phillies
Crawford and Milner give us two serious left-handed bats to work with in left field. With the departure of Sizemore, veteran Denny Doyle, who’s hit pretty well in a utility role the past few years, will regain the primary second base job, platooning with sophomore Alan Bannister.
Rookie right-hander Larry Christenson will join the starting corps, and we’ll shift hard-throwing but tender-armed Wayne Twitchell to the bullpen, replacing veteran Dave Giusti. Bill Laxton has won the lefty bullpen spot vacated by Grant Jackson.
1976 Philadelphia Phillies Won 92 Lost 70 Finished 2nd
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B G. Luzinski 25 149 533 73 162 28 1 21 92 50 107 .304 .369 .478 .847 137
2B D. Doyle* 32 117 432 51 103 14 6 0 26 24 39 .238 .274 .299 .573 61
SS L. Bowa# 30 148 562 61 139 14 8 0 41 29 28 .247 .278 .301 .578 63
3B M. Schmidt 26 160 584 111 153 31 4 38 104 100 149 .262 .374 .524 .898 151
RF R. Smith# 31 112 395 60 99 14 6 19 54 35 66 .251 .314 .461 .775 116
CF G. Maddox 26 146 531 74 175 37 6 6 65 42 59 .330 .377 .456 .833 134
LF-RF W. Crawford* 29 120 392 54 119 17 4 10 47 39 51 .304 .361 .444 .805 126
C B. Boone 28 121 361 39 98 18 2 4 51 45 44 .271 .344 .366 .710 100
LF-1B J. Milner* 26 105 295 40 84 18 3 10 49 42 38 .285 .372 .468 .839 135
2B-SS A. Bannister 24 105 263 36 61 11 2 1 16 31 45 .232 .308 .300 .608 72
OF J. Martin 27 117 262 29 66 14 1 7 30 19 57 .252 .303 .393 .696 95
C T. McCarver* 34 90 155 25 43 11 2 3 28 35 14 .277 .407 .432 .839 136
1B-OF B. Beall# 28 73 117 21 28 5 1 2 13 32 32 .239 .401 .350 .752 113
C J. Essian 25 52 100 10 24 4 0 0 11 11 15 .240 .313 .280 .593 68
IF C. Robinson 27 56 87 10 15 1 0 0 4 13 27 .172 .280 .184 .464 33
P-PH K. Brett* 27 41 87 8 21 4 0 2 10 3 16 .241 .261 .356 .617 72
Others 17 3 7 1 0 0 0 2 1 .412 .500 .471 .971 174
Pitchers 289 20 50 8 0 2 27 18 109 .174 .205 .222 .427 20
Total 5462 724 1447 250 46 125 666 570 897 .265 .332 .396 .728 104
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
J. Lonborg 34 33 32 8 17 11 1 222 210 85 76 18 50 118 3.08 115
D. Ruthven 25 32 32 7 15 13 0 216 210 92 92 11 82 130 3.83 92
K. Brett* 27 29 26 8 10 9 2 183 145 75 68 5 76 84 3.34 106
L. Christenson 22 35 26 2 12 8 0 169 197 76 68 8 42 55 3.62 98
T. Underwood* 22 36 22 3 10 6 2 156 152 62 60 9 63 96 3.46 102
C. Morton 32 29 21 1 6 7 0 140 156 73 60 5 45 43 3.86 92
G. Garber 28 60 0 0 9 3 15 94 79 33 29 4 30 93 2.78 127
T. McGraw* 31 59 0 0 7 6 15 98 82 34 27 4 42 77 2.48 143
B. Laxton* 28 48 2 0 2 5 3 96 72 47 42 11 57 78 3.94 90
W. Twitchell 28 28 1 0 3 1 2 62 55 18 12 3 18 67 1.74 203
Others 0 0 1 1 1 22 23 9 7 1 6 10 2.86 124
Total 162 29 92 70 41 1458 1381 604 541 79 511 851 3.34 106
* Throws left
Just about everything proceeds according to plan. With Mike Schmidt, Greg Luzinski, and a full-season-healthy Garry Maddox leading the way, we present a deep, multi-faceted, and highly productive offense. Our pitching staff doesn’t include any particular standout star, but is also top-to-bottom deep and effective.
It adds up to an excellent all-around ball club, a very serious contender. Unfortunately, we fall three games short of our 95-win Pythagorean projection, and in an extremely tight race that’s enough to force us to settle for second-best.
Cardinals
We’re making only modest adjustments to the roster that delivered the fourth flag in five seasons in 1975. Replacing Torre at third base will be power-hitting rookie Hector Cruz (Jose’s brother). On the pitching staff, rookies John Denny and Harry Rasmussen win starting spots, replacing retired Bob Gibson, and moving veteran Ron Reed to the bullpen.
1976 St. Louis Cardinals Won 83 Lost 79 Finished 4th
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B K. Hernandez* 22 156 617 91 180 35 9 12 76 82 75 .292 .379 .436 .815 131
2B D. Cash 28 160 666 82 187 14 12 1 50 52 14 .281 .332 .342 .675 92
SS M. Tyson 26 76 245 27 70 12 9 3 29 16 34 .286 .326 .445 .771 117
3B-OF H. Cruz 23 132 395 43 89 13 1 10 53 31 90 .225 .282 .339 .621 76
RF-CF J. Cruz* 28 133 439 56 140 23 5 4 63 55 46 .319 .392 .421 .813 131
CF-RF B. McBride* 27 72 272 41 91 13 4 3 25 18 28 .335 .385 .445 .829 135
LF L. Brock* 37 126 448 68 137 22 4 4 61 32 68 .306 .347 .400 .746 111
C T. Simmons# 26 150 546 62 158 35 3 5 79 72 36 .289 .369 .392 .761 116
OF L. Hisle 29 103 291 37 78 10 3 6 43 29 50 .268 .329 .385 .714 102
3B K. Reitz 25 93 254 19 67 9 0 2 29 10 22 .264 .285 .323 .608 72
SS-3B M. Phillips* 25 79 210 24 56 5 6 2 23 19 25 .267 .319 .376 .695 97
CF J. Mumphrey# 23 75 192 27 48 7 2 1 14 17 29 .250 .311 .323 .634 80
RF-LF L. Stanton 30 84 185 12 36 10 1 2 21 20 47 .195 .269 .292 .561 59
SS G. Templeton# 20 35 142 22 41 5 1 1 12 5 22 .289 .313 .359 .672 90
OF-1B J. Dwyer* 26 61 105 10 18 3 1 0 5 14 11 .171 .267 .219 .486 39
IF L. Richard 27 44 61 9 11 3 1 0 3 3 6 .180 .215 .262 .478 35
C S. Jutze 30 28 61 5 10 1 2 0 5 3 11 .164 .200 .246 .446 26
CF L. Herndon 22 23 33 5 9 1 0 0 2 2 5 .273 .306 .303 .609 73
Others 16 2 3 0 0 0 2 2 3 .188 .278 .188 .465 34
Pitchers 373 20 70 11 1 1 26 10 107 .188 .192 .230 .422 19
Total 5551 669 1499 232 65 57 621 492 729 .270 .326 .366 .692 96
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
S. Carlton* 31 35 35 13 18 8 0 253 232 94 88 17 72 196 3.13 113
B. Forsch 26 36 31 2 9 10 0 188 202 108 81 16 70 76 3.88 92
J. Denny 23 29 26 6 10 8 0 181 163 62 50 10 66 68 2.49 143
L. McGlothen 26 33 28 8 12 14 0 179 180 82 76 9 60 96 3.82 93
F. Norman* 33 29 18 5 9 6 0 139 117 54 46 7 56 101 2.98 119
H. Rasmussen 24 39 15 2 5 11 0 135 124 59 52 9 49 69 3.47 102
A. Hrabosky* 26 68 0 0 8 6 15 95 89 42 35 5 39 73 3.32 107
R. Reed 33 59 4 1 7 8 14 128 94 39 35 7 32 97 2.46 144
J. Curtis* 28 37 5 1 3 5 1 89 90 43 42 6 43 37 4.25 84
M. Garman 26 35 0 0 1 3 1 51 49 28 24 4 23 27 4.24 84
Others 0 0 1 0 1 21 17 8 8 0 7 12 3.43 104
Total 162 38 83 79 32 1459 1357 619 537 90 517 852 3.31 107
* Throws left
The performance of the rookies is a mixed bag: Heity Cruz disappoints, but Denny does splendidly, while Rasmussen is so-so. And that seems to symbolize our year, with the positive developments (including the blossoming of 22-year-old sophomore Keith Hernandez, the continuing late development of 28-year-old Jose Cruz, and the rejuvenation of Reed as a reliever) being countered by the not-so-positive (another injury-riddled season for Bake McBride, and flops by utility outfielders Leroy Stanton and Jim Dwyer).
Generally it’s a year in which we fall a bit short of our excellent standard. Compounding it, we underperform Pythag by four wins. The result is a Cardinal team finishing in the unfamiliar position of the middle of the pack.
Mets
We’ve undertaken only a few tweaks. Rookie Mike Easler replaces Milner’s left-handed bat, and journeyman Jerry DaVanon takes Tony Taylor’s backup infield role. The rookie John Stearns becomes the third catcher in place of Charlie Sands (and Stearns will move up the depth chart when Milt May goes down early). Veteran Grant Jackson and rookie Nino Espinosa join the bullpen.
1976 New York Mets Won 93 Lost 69 Finished 1st
Pos Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1B-LF D. Kingman 27 117 427 60 101 13 1 33 81 25 122 .237 .283 .504 .787 128
2B F. Millan 32 139 531 60 150 25 2 1 39 41 19 .282 .337 .343 .680 100
SS B. Harrelson# 32 103 269 28 63 9 3 1 20 48 42 .234 .348 .301 .649 92
3B W. Garrett* 28 139 428 57 95 12 2 6 42 85 45 .222 .351 .301 .652 93
RF K. Singleton# 29 154 544 67 150 25 2 13 74 87 76 .276 .371 .401 .772 127
CF A. Otis 29 153 592 86 158 37 1 19 79 61 100 .267 .334 .429 .763 123
LF-CF J. Johnstone* 30 129 440 63 135 35 3 5 50 41 38 .307 .363 .434 .797 133
C J. Stearns 24 107 261 37 69 11 1 6 26 41 28 .264 .367 .383 .750 120
SS-2B T. Foli 25 130 410 34 100 25 1 5 43 12 24 .244 .260 .346 .607 77
1B A. Thornton 26 81 239 29 42 9 1 10 29 46 37 .176 .310 .347 .657 93
C J. Grote 33 84 215 23 59 9 1 3 21 25 13 .274 .348 .367 .716 110
LF-1B M. Easler* 25 80 198 23 56 9 1 7 27 14 45 .283 .327 .444 .772 125
1B M. Jorgensen* 27 78 172 20 39 7 0 3 13 27 23 .227 .328 .320 .648 91
3B J. DaVanon 30 61 107 21 31 3 2 2 21 22 11 .290 .412 .411 .823 142
C T. Blackwell# 23 39 62 4 11 1 0 0 4 6 12 .177 .246 .194 .440 30
LF B. Ayala 25 11 26 2 4 0 0 2 4 2 6 .154 .214 .385 .599 73
C M. May* 25 6 25 2 7 1 0 0 1 0 1 .280 .280 .320 .600 76
Others 20 2 5 0 0 0 2 3 3 .250 .348 .250 .598 73
Pitchers 407 30 61 6 0 0 26 30 157 .150 .192 .165 .357 6
Total 5373 641 1336 237 21 116 584 616 802 .249 .323 .365 .688 102
* Bats left
# Bats both
Pitcher Age G GS CG W L SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
T. Seaver 31 35 34 13 15 11 0 271 211 83 78 14 77 235 2.59 126
J. Matlack* 26 35 35 16 17 9 0 262 236 94 86 18 57 153 2.95 111
N. Ryan 29 35 35 19 17 15 0 256 169 112 97 11 181 298 3.41 96
J. Koosman* 33 34 32 17 21 9 0 247 205 81 74 19 66 200 2.70 121
C. Swan 25 23 21 1 6 7 0 111 105 52 41 8 37 76 3.32 98
S. Lockwood 29 50 0 0 8 6 13 75 48 24 21 4 27 89 2.52 130
W. Fryman* 36 46 0 0 3 3 2 58 37 16 13 2 20 41 2.02 162
B. Apodaca 26 36 0 0 2 4 5 59 39 15 11 1 20 32 1.68 195
G. Jackson* 33 32 0 0 3 2 2 50 36 18 16 1 21 28 2.88 114
N. Espinosa 22 26 5 1 2 2 0 50 50 22 17 3 19 30 3.06 107
Others 0 0 0 0 0 11 8 3 3 0 4 4 2.45 133
Total 162 67 93 69 22 1450 1144 520 457 81 529 1186 2.84 115
* Throws left
Line-drive-hitting Jay Johnstone wins the primary left field job, reducing Dave Kingman to a secondary role. But incumbent first basemen Andre Thornton and Mike Jorgensen both slump, creating an opening for Kong, who seizes it with his signature all-or-nothing approach.
In May’s absence, both Stearns and veteran Jerry Grote hit well. With Amos Otis and Ken Singleton both contributing strongly, our offense is a distinct strength.
And it’s paired with a pitching staff of rare excellence. The Big Four of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, and Jon Matlack are all healthy, and they combine for 70 wins. The lightly-taxed bullpen behind them is superb as well. To engineer a big inning against this gang of arms is an exceptionally challenging assignment.
It’s arguably the all-around best ball club in Mets’ history, entirely championship-worthy. The Run Distribution Gods are in a foul mood, however, and we undershoot our projected record by five wins. Nevertheless, we’re good enough to nip the excellent Phillies entry at the wire in a memorable running.
Epilogue
When conceiving of this series, my expectation was that it would deliver a Battle Royale between the virtual Cardinals and Mets. In this period, both of those actual franchises made it a specialty to muff opportunities, as St. Louis frittered away Bobby Tolan, Dick Allen, Steve Carlton, Jerry Reuss, and Jose Cruz, while New York allowed Amos Otis, Nolan Ryan, and Ken Singleton to slip through its fingers. Meanwhile, our Phillies, not being able to benefit from picking up Carlton at a bargain price, projected to struggle mightily.
But if in real life, “that’s why they play the games,” then in our virtual scenarios, “that’s why they run the spreadsheets.” What these exercises best illuminate isn’t just the impact of the stars, which may be obvious, but the multitude of meaningful “what if” stories lurking amid the rosters full of lesser names. And there’s really no way of understanding what the impact of those many alternative situations will be until undertaking the scenario. The only thing that will certainly be encountered is surprise.
These Cardinals turned out to be even better than I expected, presenting outstanding roster depth and continual development of good young talent to support the stars. These Mets, meanwhile, didn’t demonstrate quite the same organizational capacity to fill in the softer spots behind their great front-line talent, and so while they were very good, they didn’t pose much of a challenge to St. Louis over the long course of these years.
And despite the absence of the towering Lefty, our Phillies were a plucky survivor. This exercise reveals that the early-1970s Phils could plausibly have done a much better job of managing the full roster than they did. They hurt themselves with giveaway trades of Grant Jackson, Johnny Briggs, Tim McCarver, and Andre Thornton, and by dumping off veterans Tony Taylor and Woodie Fryman when they still had value to deliver. They could have negotiated a better deal than they did when surrendering Allen, and overall for several years there was a layer of reasonably-available role-player talent that the actual Phillies had a very hard time locating.
Still, in our scenario, by 1975 and especially ’76, the actual Philadelphia ball club was better than ours. Given that Carlton would age remarkably well, delivering several of his best seasons in the late ’70s and early ’80s, looking forward past 1976 it seems clear that our Phillies will have lost the rabbit’s foot.
In real life, the most successful National League East team through this era was the Pittsburgh Pirates. In this scenario, unable to make use of Dave Giusti, Bob Johnson, and Ken Brett, they’re no match for St. Louis. And the dominant NL West team in these years was, of course, the Big Red Machine, but missing out on Tolan, Wayne Granger, Tom Hall, Fred Norman, and Clay Kirby, they wouldn’t have been as excellent as they were. Yet as reader Philip articulated in last week’s comments, by 1975 that shortfall would have largely dissipated, and the Cincinnati team that emerged would be almost as amazingly good as the genuine article.
Phillies: Actual Cardinals: Actual Mets: Actual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1969 63 99 5 645 745 87 75 4 595 540 100 62 1 632 541
1970 73 88 5 594 730 76 86 4 744 747 83 79 3 695 630
1971 67 95 6 558 688 90 72 2 739 699 83 79 3 588 550
1972 59 97 6 503 625 75 81 4 568 600 83 73 3 528 578
1973 71 91 6 642 717 81 81 2 643 603 82 79 1 608 588
1974 80 82 3 676 701 86 75 2 677 643 71 91 5 572 646
1975 86 76 2 735 694 82 80 3T 662 689 82 80 3T 646 625
1976 101 61 1 770 557 72 90 5 629 671 86 76 3 615 538
Phillies: Virtual Cardinals: Virtual Mets: Virtual
Year W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA W L Pos RS RA
1969 64 98 5 611 691 98 64 2 659 528 101 61 1 638 550
1970 77 84 5 596 691 80 82 4 742 703 84 78 3 687 619
1971 86 76 4 629 598 102 60 1 787 647 89 73 3 643 561
1972 68 88 5 585 638 105 51 1 675 478 93 63 2 551 523
1973 93 69 1 680 572 80 82 3 621 593 91 70 2 625 539
1974 86 76 2 679 654 100 61 1 738 591 83 79 4 648 622
1975 82 80 4 715 712 98 64 1 762 652 92 70 2 656 565
1976 92 70 2 724 604 83 79 4 669 619 93 69 1 641 520
References & Resources
* An additional reason Reitz was overrated was that he’d been an extremely hot starter: he hit .417 in April of ’74, and .369 the following April. This got his name mentioned in the papers, listed prominently among the league’s batting leaders (if only fleetingly), in a way that wouldn’t have happened with a slow start and a strong finish.
Dec., 1975: The St. Louis Cardinals sold third baseman-first baseman Joe Torre to the Baltimore Orioles.
Instead of becoming the player-manager of the Mets and retiring at age 36, Torre finds new life as a full time dh in the American league and is able to finish his career with 3000 hits and a ticket to the hall of fame.
Not implausible. After his big 1969-70 weight loss, forever after Torre kept himself in terrific condition, and he could always lay out the line drives. His swing was such a thing of beauty: calm, sure, smooth, strong, not a particle of wasted energy.
Historically, the Mets faceplanted after this season and would be terrible until the mid-80s. Do you think that these virtual Mets would at least be respectable until they turned it around?
Definitely. These Mets still hold three huge assets the actual Mets didn’t, in Amos Otis, Ken Singleton, and Nolan Ryan, all of whom still had a long way to go past 1976.
The virtual Mets of the 80’s would have to go a different way since they almost certainly wouldn’t have Strawberry or Gooden, or Hubie Brooks (a key part of the Gary Carter trade).
Teriffic series of articles. I think one thing this may have proved is that Bing Devine (with some help from Gussie Busch) completely lost his way in the 1970’s, and missed a huge opportunity to build on the Cardinal’s 1960’s success. The Cardinals could have almost had a 1964 thru 1987 ‘dynasty’ period.
“I wonder if the Phillies would now have wished they had made that offer to the Pirates of Ken Brett for Dave Cash. He certainly would have made the difference in 1976.”
Sure, but these Phillies had Sizemore in 1973, and he’d been holding down second base just fine.
Another fascinating virtual history alternative, Steve.
I wonder if the Phillies would now have wished they had made that offer to the Pirates of Ken Brett for Dave Cash. He certainly would have made the difference in 1976.
Re: The Cincinnati Reds
According to Wiki (haven’t yet checking this with retrosheet), The Big Red Machine went 88-19 in games in 1975-76 in which Sparky Anderson penciled in the “Great Eight” (Bench, Perez, Morgan, Concepcion, Rose, Foster, Geronimo and Griffey) as his starting lineup.
According to Retrosheet.org, from 1974 through 1978 (including the win in the 1976 LCS), the Cincinnati Reds were 10-5 in games in which Steve Carlton started against them. Carlton’s ERA in those games was 3.34. That would seem to bode well for the Reds in any LCS vs a Cardinals team that retained the big lefty.
On the other hand, the Reds may not have faired so well against the New York Mets in the 1976 LCS. Seaver, Koosman and Matlack started 7 games against the Big Red Machine that year, the Mets winning 4 of those (although the “Great Eight” started only one game against them – and ironically lost that one to Jon Matlack).
In addition, Steve’s Alternative Timeline Mets would have Nolan Ryan thrown into the mix. The upset the Mets achieved in 1973 against the Reds might have simply ended up being delayed 3 years.
Although outside of Steve’s analysis (as the focus was primarily on the 3 NL East teams in question), I believe this alternate time would have had a serious impact on the 1976 American League pennant race.
Without Singleton, the O’s likely wouldn’t have been able to stay ahead of the Red Sox. And a Yankees team without Randolph, Rivers and Figueroa would have found it difficult to unseat defending champion Boston, especially if the Red Sox had won the 75 World Series on Fisk’s homerun.
But it’s not just the AL East that gets the butterfly effect. No Amos Otis in Kansas City probably means the Oakland Athletics win a sixth straight division crown.
Of course, all this would have huge implications as free agency begins.
Do the Yankees still go after Reggie Jackson had they retained Bobby Bonds in 1976?
Do the Mets, perhaps with a NL flag in 1976, still trade Tom Seaver the following season to the team they might have beaten in the NLCS: Cincinnati?
Do the Reds feel greater pressure to retain Don Gullett if their last World Championship remains 1940?
Do the Red Sox, perhaps with two straight World Championships, make it three in a row (and maybe four in 1978?)?
What about Joe Torre? Does his move to Baltimore delays his managerial debut? But does the experience he gains under Red Schoendienst and now Earl Weaver make him an even better skipper in the future? Then again, as John A. said, Torre probably extends his playing career.
Moving forward, free agency aside, I think the Mets may be in the best shape of the 3 NLE clubs here – if they retain that amazing pitching staff. The Phillies are soon to have problems: Reggie Smith injuries and the end of the line for Denny Doyle and Willie Crawford.
With Greg Luzinski planted at first, they probably don’t go after Pete Rose.
Rose likely ends up either in Atlanta (Rose: “Ted Turner… made be a tremendous offer” – Palm Beach Post, 11/27/78)…
… or Pittsburgh! Yes, the Pirates were courting Rose (to likely play third). So, too, the Mets (who in the alternative time-line probably don’t).
True, the Phillies did win in 1973 with Sizemore’s help. And, overall, Philadelphia did improve during the alternate time-line period, so one really can’t argue against success.
Hands down, the Cardinals sure cleaned up. Whereas the Phillies gained an average of nearly six wins per season and the Mets gained nearly seven, St. Louis was up an average of 12. In additional, whereas both Philadelphia and New York each won the same number of division titles as they had won in the real timeline, the Cardinals won four – four more than they actually won – all coming at the expense of the Pirates.
There are nearly 200 extra losses to spread out among the other major league teams. As Steve pointed out, the Pirates end up big losers in this alternate history.
But it’s not just the National League that takes the hit.
Baltimore, Kansas City and New York will all take hits to their win totals, with that memorable 1976 ALCS instead likely becoming a re-match between Boston and Oakland.
The California Angels will sorely miss Nolan Ryan.
Not having won the pennant in 1973, is Yogi Berra still the Mets manager in 1976?
And how about this change?
from this:
Managerial Record of Red Schoendienst
1965 80-81 .497 7th
1966 83-79 .512 6
1967 101-60 .627 1 – World Champions
1968 97-65 .599 1 – NL pennant
1969 87-75 .537 4th
1970 76-86 .469 4th
1971 90-72 .556 2nd
1972 75-81 .481 4th
1973 81-81 .500 2nd
1974 86-75 .534 2nd
1975 82-80 .506 4th
1976 72-90 .444 5th
TOT 1010-925 .522
31st on the All-Time Winning Pct List*
(* of managers with 1000+ wins)
to this…
Managerial Record of Red Schoendienst
1965 80-81 .497 7th
1966 83-79 .512 6
1967 101-60 .627 1 – World Champions
1968 97-65 .599 1 – NL pennant
1969 98-64 .605 2nd
1970 80-82 .494 4th
1971 102-60 .630 1st – World Champions?
1972 105-51 .673 1st – World Champions?
1973 80-82 .494 3rd
1974 100-61 .621 1st – World Champions?
1975 98-64 .605 1st – NLE champions +?
1976 83-79 .512 4th
TOT 1107-828 .572
10th on the All-Time Winning Pct List*
(* of managers with 1000+ wins)
Schoendienst got the shaft several times by management, who traded Steve Carlton, Jerry Reuss, and Jim Bibby. How many 100’s of games did those three starting pitchers win for other teams? It must have been 400 or more and they were not all Carlton’s wins, either, yet, Schoendienst several times competed for the pennant.
—Stay tuned.