Top baserunners of 2009 by Colin Wyers November 28, 2009 This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here’s the basic method: For all plays, we consider the lead runner only. We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event – typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those plays are grouped by: The number of outs in the inning. The type of event – single, double, etc. (A fielder’s choice is considered an ordinary out.) For batting outs, whether the ball was hit in the air or on the ground. The position of the player who fields the ball. Then we figure the change in run expectancy for the lead runner on each individual baserunning play. For a non-discretionary event, we subtract the average value of that running play. For a discretionary running play, such as a wild pitch or passed ball, we do not – a runner is not penalized for the decision not to run. That gives us our baserunning runs. Your leaders (and trailers) for 2009: RUN_ID Name Runs Chances bourm001 Michael Bourn 10.8 230 fowld001 Dexter Fowler 10.0 142 velee001 Eugenio Velez 7.6 90 figgc001 Chone Figgins 7.4 230 podss001 Scott Podsednik 7.0 169 philb001 Brandon Phillips 6.8 118 bonie001 Emilio Bonifacio 6.4 131 wrigd002 David Wright 6.3 172 sweer001 Ryan Sweeney 6.0 142 furcr001 Rafael Furcal 6.0 210 RUN_ID Name Runs Chances morak001 Kendry Morales -4.1 123 moram002 Melvin Mora -4.1 89 posaj001 Jorge Posada -4.4 99 howar001 Ryan Howard -5.0 120 thomj002 Jim Thome -5.1 81 felip001 Pedro Feliz -5.1 153 wietm001 Matt Wieters -5.5 84 molib001 Bengie Molina -5.5 95 heltt001 Todd Helton -6.3 162 bardj001 Josh Bard -7.2 55 Your typical caveats apply – don’t read too much into a one year sample. Remember that players at the extremes during any sample tend to regress to the mean as the sample increases, etc. The full list is available here.