Sign In
Support Us
FanGraphs Membership
FanGraphs Merchandise
Gift a Membership
Donate to FanGraphs
Fantasy
Fantasy Tools
Fantasy Player Rater
Auction Calculator
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Signup
,
FAQ
,
Blog Posts
Blogs
Blog Roll
FanGraphs
Podcasts:
Effectively Wild
FanGraphs Prospects
RotoGraphs
Podcasts:
The Sleeper and The Bust
|
Field of Streams
|
Beat the Shift
Community Research
Archived Blogs:
The Hardball Times
|
NotGraphs
|
TechGraphs
|
FanGraphs+
Archived THT:
THT Live
|
Dispatch
|
Fantasy
|
ShysterBall
Archived Podcasts:
FanGraphs Audio
|
Chin Music
|
UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project
|
Stealing Home
|
Doing It For Bartolo
|
OttoGraphs
|
Projections
2026 Pre-Season Projections
ZiPS
,
ZiPS DC
Steamer
Depth Charts
ATC
THE BAT
,
THE BAT X
OOPSY
2026 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
Steamer600
,
Steamer600 (Update)
OOPSYPeak
,
OOPSY Peak (Update)
2026 Updated In-Season Projections
ZiPS (RoS)
,
ZiPS (Update)
,
ZiPS DC (RoS)
Steamer (RoS)
,
Steamer (Update)
Depth Charts (RoS)
ATC DC (RoS)
THE BAT (RoS)
,
THE BAT X (RoS)
OOPSY DC (RoS)
3-Year Projections
ZiPS 2027
,
ZiPS 2028
On-Pace Leaders
Every Game Played
,
Games Played %
Cy Young Award Projections
Auction Calculator
Scores
Today
Live Scoreboard
,
Probable Pitchers
Live Daily Leaderboards
Season Schedule & Results
Win Probability & Box Scores
2025
,
2024
,
2023
,
2022
,
2021
,
2020
,
2019
AL Games
NL Games
Standings
2026 Projected Standings
2026 Playoff Odds
,
Playoff Odds Graphs
2026 Pythagorean & BaseRuns Records
2026 ZiPS Postseason Game-By-Game Odds
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Leaders
Major League Postseason Leaders
Batting:
2026
, (
LDS
), (
WCS
),
Career
Pitching:
2026
, (
LDS
), (
WCS
),
Career
Major League Leaders
Batting:
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
,
2022
,
Career
Pitching:
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
,
2022
,
Career
Fielding:
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
,
2022
,
Career
Major League Leaders - Rank
Batting:
Ranking Grid
,
Compare Players
,
Compare Stats
Pitching:
Ranking Grid
,
Compare Players
,
Compare Stats
Splits Leaderboards
Pitch-Type Splits Leaderboards
Season Stat Grid
Spring Training Leaders
Batting:
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
Pitching:
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
College Leaders
Batting
,
Pitching
Minor League Leaders
AAA:
International League
,
Pacific Coast League
AA:
Eastern League
,
Southern League
,
Texas League
A+:
Midwest League
,
South Atlantic League
,
Northwest League
A:
California League
,
Carolina League
,
Florida State League
CPX:
Arizona
,
Florida
R:
Dominican Summer League
KBO Leaders
2026 Batting
,
2026 Pitching
NPB Leaders
2026 Batting
,
2026 Pitching
WAR Tools
Combined WAR Leaderboards
WAR Graphs
WPA Tools
WPA Inquirer
Rookie Leaders
Batters 2026
,
Pitchers 2026
,
Splits Leaders
Batters:
vs L
,
vs R
,
Home
,
Away
Pitchers:
vs L
,
vs R
,
Home
,
Away
Teams
Team Batting Stats
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
,
2022
,
2021
,
2020
Team Pitching Stats
2026
,
2025
,
2024
,
2023
,
2022
,
2021
,
2020
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
AL East
Blue Jays
|
DC
Orioles
|
DC
Rays
|
DC
Red Sox
|
DC
Yankees
|
DC
AL Central
Guardians
|
DC
Royals
|
DC
Tigers
|
DC
Twins
|
DC
White Sox
|
DC
AL West
Angels
|
DC
Astros
|
DC
Athletics
|
DC
Mariners
|
DC
Rangers
|
DC
NL East
Braves
|
DC
Marlins
|
DC
Mets
|
DC
Nationals
|
DC
Phillies
|
DC
NL Central
Brewers
|
DC
Cardinals
|
DC
Cubs
|
DC
Pirates
|
DC
Reds
|
DC
NL West
D-backs
|
DC
Dodgers
|
DC
Giants
|
DC
Padres
|
DC
Rockies
|
DC
Positional Depth Charts
Batters:
C
,
1B
,
2B
,
SS
,
3B
,
LF
,
CF
,
RF
,
DH
Pitchers:
SP
,
RP
RosterResource
Current Depth Charts
AL East
Blue Jays
Orioles
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
AL Central
Guardians
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
AL West
Angels
Astros
Athletics
Mariners
Rangers
NL East
Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Phillies
NL Central
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
Reds
NL West
D-backs
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Rockies
In-Season Tools
2026 Closer Depth Chart
2026 Injury Report
2026 Payroll Pages
2026 Transaction Tracker
2026 Schedule Grid
2026 Probables Grid
2026 Lineup Tracker
2026 Minor League Power Rankings
Offseason Tools
2027 Free Agent Tracker
2026 Offseason Tracker
2026 Opening Day Tracker
Prospects
Prospects Home
The Board
The Board: Scouting + Stats
How To Use The Board: A Tutorial
Farm System Rankings
Top Prospects List
2026
2025
AL
BAL
CHW
ATH
BOS
CLE
HOU
NYY
DET
LAA
TBR
KCR
SEA
TOR
MIN
TEX
NL
ATL
CHC
ARI
MIA
CIN
COL
NYM
MIL
LAD
PHI
PIT
SDP
WSN
STL
SFG
2026 Preseason Top 100
2026 Pre-Trade Deadline Top 100 Update
Lab
Baseball Sim
Heat Maps Pivot
Hot Streak
Paired Pitches
PitchingBot Visualizer
Power Rankings Board
Squared-Up Explorer
More ▾
Glossary
Library
Guts! / Constants
Park Factors
Support
FanGraphs Membership
Merchandise
Prospects / The Board
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Tools
Blogs
Glossary
Library
Batting Stats
wOBA
,
wRC+
,
ISO
,
K% & BB%
,
more...
Pitching Stats
FIP
,
xFIP
,
BABIP
,
K/9 & BB/9
,
more...
Defensive Stats
UZR Primer
,
DRS
,
FSR
,
TZ & TZL
,
more...
More
WAR
,
UBR Primer
,
WPA
,
LI
,
Clutch
Guts!
Seasonal Constants
Park Factors
Park Factors by Handedness
Sign In
Author Archive: Patrick Brennan
Beating the Odds: When Teams Outperform Their Projections
9/19/2019 -
Patrick Brennan
3
When it comes to outperforming projections, some teams are better than others.
