The Pyramid Rating System’s All-Time Kansas City Royals
Despite his recent struggles, Alex Gordon is still the best left fielder in Royals’ history. (via Keith Allison)
| Paul Moehringer’s Pyramid Rating System & All-Time Teams
Aug. 27, 2015: The Pyramid Rating System: JAWS on a Career Scale March 15, 2016: The Pyramid Rating System: The Results Aug. 12, 2016: All-Time League and Baltimore Orioles Sept. 2, 2016: Boston Red Sox Sept. 28, 2016: Texas Rangers Oct. 19, 2016: Brooklyn Dodgers Nov. 30, 2016: Cincinnati Reds Dec. 15, 2016: 2016 Season Update Dec. 20, 2016: Seattle Mariners Jan. 25, 2017: Milwaukee Brewers/Braves Feb. 2, 2017: Cleveland Indians Mar. 15, 2017: Los Angeles Dodgers May 15, 2017: Houston Astros June 30, 2017: Philadelphia Phillies |
For our next entry in the Pyramid Rating System’s all-time teams series, we head to the AL West to find the traditional home of the Kansas City Royals.
One of the most dominant teams during the 1970s and ’80s, the Royals fell on hard times during the 1990s before undergoing a recent resurrection that saw them appear in two World Series and walk away with the crown in 2015.
As one would expect, the Royals’ roster is built mainly around the players from the ’70s and ’80s, while the more recent teams round out what is arguably the best of the expansion teams.
Although the franchise lineage includes the Kansas City Athletics, just one player from the era, Norm Siebern, made the 40-man roster, while the A’s highest ranked player, Ed Charles will not be featured in the series.
Unfortunately for the Royals, the city-centric rule does not include the Negro League Kansas City Monarchs, which if included would give the Royals Hall of Famers Satchel Paige, Willard Brown and Hilton Smith at the heights of their careers. The additions of Paige and Smith would have given the Royals one of the best rotations in this series.
Franchises Included: Kansas City Athletics (1955-1967); Kansas City Royals (1969-Present)
Hall of Famers on 25-man roster: 1
Manager: Whitey Herzog
Although he managed more games and had more postseason success with St. Louis, it’s still not quite enough for the Hall of Fame manager to earn the skipper’s job for Cardinals. However with Royals, Herzog is able to beat out solid competition from Dick Howser and represent the team for which he had a .574 winning percentage with never a losing season.
It was under Herzog that the Royals crashed through their glass ceiling, winning the AL West three straight seasons from 1976 through ’78. All three times the Royals faced off against the New York Yankees, but all three times they came up short, no doubt a major factor in management’s decision to remove Herzog.
Herzog’s firing after the ’79 season has to go down as one of the biggest headscratchers in baseball history. It would be a sign of things to come, as Kansas City would display similar quick triggers in firing Jim Frey and Dick Howser, in both cases just a year after they had taken the Royals to the World Series.
It’s impossible to say how the ’80s Royals would have fared under Herzog, but I have a hard time understanding why he shouldn’t have been given the chance.
Best Overall Player, Position Player and Hitter: George Brett
When one player leads a franchise in singles, doubles, triples and home runs, the debate over who the greatest player in that franchise’s history tends to become pretty brief. When that one player also happens to be the only Hall of Famer to spend the majority of his career with the Royals, debate is even more pointless
In a golden age of third baseman, Brett stood head and shoulders above the rest in the American League, combining a solid glove with what could be regarded as the most feared gap power bat in the American League.
Most are aware of Brett’s ability to mash doubles — he is sixth all-time and 11 times finished in the top 10 — but Brett was nearly as deadly when it came to triples, finishing in the top 10 nine times amd leading the league in triples twice.
With his whole 21-year career played in Kansas City, Brett’s standing in the league is even higher than his raw stats would indicate. Brett will pose a serious contender to Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews and Cal Ripken Jr. for starting third baseman on the AL’s All-Star team and as he was throughout his career, will be the unquestioned leader of this Royals squad.
Best Pitcher: Kevin Appier (honorable mention: Bret Saberhagen)
Of any one-two combo across either league, this is by far the most underrated. Although the two combined for just three All-Star appearances while with the Royals, their stats indicate they each should have had at least that many selections.
When discussing the most dominant pitchers of the 1990s, Appier is doubtful to come up, but he probably should as his name is dotted on leader boards more often than most would expect.
From 1990 through 1997, Appier finished in the top 10 in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and strikeout-to-walk ratio five times. For a brief time, an argument could have been made that Appier was the best pitcher in the American League, leading the AL in ERA, ERA+, home runs allowed per nine innings and WAR.
Appier’s career ERA+ of 130 with the Royals over 13 seasons is nearly identical to Sandy Koufax’s career ERA+ of 131 over 12 seasons and is higher than those of Hall of Famers Fergie Jenkins, Juan Marichal and Jim Palmer.
Similarly, many have lost sight of how good Saberhagen was at his peak. He was a two time Cy-Young award winner with KC, and, like Appier, peppered the leader boards, and one point leading the American League in wins, ERA, innings pitched, WHIP, walks per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Is this one-two at the level of a Clemens/Pedro or a Kershaw/Koufax? No. Is it better than most? A hundred percent yes.
Best Player Not on the Roster Due to the One-Team-Only Rule: Carlos Beltrán
Whether because of poor ownership, the economics of the game at the time or some combination of both, the late ’90s-early 2000s Royals were little more than a glorified Triple-A team.
From 1995 through 2012, the Royals posted just one winning season. At the height of their ineptitude, 2002-2006, the Royals lost 100-plus four out of five years. A lot of this downturn coincided with the departure of Carlos Beltron, probably the best young player the Royals franchise had ever produced aside from Brett.
Beltrán’s potential was noticed right away. After winning the Rookie of the Year award in ’99, he suffered an injury-plagued season which limited him to just 98 games. But in 2001 Beltrán would put it all together; batting .301 with 24 home runs and 31 stolen bases in what would be a display of things to come.
By 2004 Beltrán had established himself as arguably the best center fielder in baseball. coming off of his third consecutive season of 20-plus home runs, 30-plus steals, 100-plus runs and 100-plus RBIs. All this had put him in a position to become one of the highest-paid players in baseball.
But rather than attempt to meet Beltrán’s salary demands, the Royals traded him to Houston, where he would go on to have one of the best postseason performances in baseball history. Then he moved on to New York, where he became a perennial MVP candidate and the face of one of the best franchises in baseball.
Even if Beltrán had never left Kansas City, it’s doubtful the Royals would have fared much better in the years after he departed, losing 90-plus games for years. But thinking that they would be better off without Beltrán speaks volumes of the Royals’ mindset at the time.
Even if the Royals had given Beltrán the contract he got in New York, they still would have been in the bottom third in the league in salaries until 2008, when they inexplicably cracked open the piggy bank for Gil Meche and Jose Guillen. You tell me which would have been the better investment.
While not as crippling as the Mariners losing Alex Rodriguez, the team does not get off scot free. Beltrán’s absence from the all-time Royals team leaves Kansas City with an obvious defensive hole in right field.
| Position | Person |
|---|---|
| Manager | Whitey Herzog |
| Bench Coach | Ned Yost |
| First Base Coach | Gary Thurman |
| Third Base Coach | Cookie Rojas |
| Hitting Coach | Charley Lau |
| Pitching Coach | Galen Cisco |
| Bullpen Coach | Mike Magnante |
| DH vs RHP | DH vs LHP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | B | T | Name | Pos | B | T | Name |
| 1B | L | L | John Mayberry | 1B | L | L | John Mayberry |
| 3B | L | R | George Brett | DH | R | R | Hal McRae |
| DH | R | R | Mike Sweeney | CF | R | R | Amos Otis |
| LF | L | R | Alex Gordon | RF | R | R | Danny Tartabull |
| RF | R | R | Danny Tartabull | C | R | R | Mike Sweeney |
| C | L | R | Darrell Porter | 2B | R | R | Frank White |
| CF | S | R | Willie Wilson | LF | L | R | Alex Gordon |
| 2B | R | R | Frank White | 3B | L | R | George Brett |
| SS | R | R | Freddie Patek | SS | R | R | Freddie Patek |
| vs RHP | vs LHP | ||||||
| Pos | B | T | Name | Pos | B | T | Name |
| 1B | L | L | John Mayberry | 1B | L | L | John Mayberry |
| 3B | L | R | George Brett | LF | R | R | Hal McRae |
| LF | L | R | Alex Gordon | CF | R | R | Amos Otis |
| C | L | R | Darrell Porter | RF | R | R | Danny Tartabull |
| RF | R | R | Danny Tartabull | C | R | R | Mike Sweeney |
| CF | S | R | Willie Wilson | 2B | R | R | Frank White |
| SS | R | R | Freddie Patek | SS | R | R | Freddie Patek |
| 2B | R | R | Frank White | 3B | L | R | George Brett |
| P | R | R | Kevin Appier | P | R | R | Kevin Appier |
| Pos | B | T | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | R | R | Salvador Pérez |
| 1B/LF | L | R | Norm Siebern |
| 2B | L | R | Jerry Lumpe |
| 3B | R | R | Kevin Seitzer |
| IF | L | R | Wayne Causey |
| OF | R | R | Lorenzo Cain |
| OF | L | L | Johnny Damon |
| OF | R | R | Jermaine Dye |
| SP | R | R | Steve Busby |
| SP | S | L | Larry Gura |
| SP | R | R | Dennis Leonard |
| SP | R | R | Gil Meche |
| RP | R | R | Steve Farr |
| RP | R | R | Kelvin Herrera |
| RP | L | L | Steve Mingori |
Strengths
For years, Herzog complained about Royals management’s inability to get him a solid relief pitcher. There will be no such complaints about a lack of bullpen depth on this team, as the Royals ‘pen doesn’t just represent the biggest strength for this team, but also might be the best in the American League.
Many may be surprised at the decision to use Dan Quisenberry as a middle reliever instead of in a late inning role, but there is a good reason for this. Quisenberry does rate as the best reliever in Royals history, but he is also by far the oldest reliever on this team, with the bullpen being built largely around the modern relievers like Wade Davis and Joakim Soria, who were the backbone of the team that won two straight American League pennants. Tthe Royals bullpen is unlike any other bullpen across the American League. With a perennial all-star like Greg Holland left without a formal role, the Royals are plenty well set for late-inning relief even without Quisenberry.
For all the depth and skill the modern relievers bring, one thing guys like Davis and Soria never had to do was consistently work multiple innings. Quisenberry, on the other hand, racked up 100-plus innings out of the bullpen in five seasons with Kansas City. Given the Royals’ depth, Quisenberry the best option for multiple innings out of the pen — the closest thing the league has to Andrew Miller and one of the few non-closers with a shot at the All-Star team.
The Royals aren’t nearly as deep among starters as they are in the bullpen, but still make for one of the American League’s better rotations. Every Royals starter on the 25-man roster at one point either received votes for or outright won the Cy Young award, with all four Royals Cy Young winners being featured in some way.
The biggest surprise is probably David Cone. Although he pitched only two full seasons for the Royals, they came at the height of his dominance. In 1994, Cone won the Cy Young. Like many others who split peak seasons over several franchises, Cone doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but of every pitcher who falls into this category, I’m not sure any had the kind of career Cone had.
An argument could be made that only Clemens was a better right-hander in the AL during the 1990s. But even though Cone was as dominant as anyone to ever wear a Kansas City uniform, he pitched fewer than 450 innings for Kansas City, and that takes him out of the discussion for being anything more than a spot starter on a good pitching staff.
Looking at the offense after George Brett, the next strongest position for the Royals is catcher. Most may not think of Mike Sweeney as a catcher, but Sweeney caught 201 games for the Royals. With John Mayberry entrenched at first base, there isn’t much need for Sweeney to play there,and Sweeney provides enough offensive value to switch off between platooning for Darrell Porter and being a DH against righties.
Weaknesses
It’s a good thing the Royals are so loaded when it comes to pitching, because the offense leaves a lot to be desired.
Up the middle the Royals feature maybe the worst middle infield of any of the all-time teams. Freddie Patek and Frank White may have been mainstays for the Royals during the ’70s and ’80s, but a career OPS+ of under 90 does not bode well in a league where teams can go three, four or even five Hall of Famers deep. Such is the case with White and Patek.
The Royals don’t get much help from the bench in that department, either. Jose Offerman and Alcides Escobar are little more than the best of a bad bunch in terms of the talent you need to be at to have an impact on the league.
The outfield is a bit better, but it’s still well below the average of what other teams will be featuring. This is where the loss of Beltrán is noticeable. Instead of having a borderline five-tool outfielder in right field to go with Alex Gordon and Willie Wilson, the Royals have to go with Danny Tartabull.
Offensively it’s pretty much a push between the two, with Tartabull having led the league in slugging in ’91, the only Royal not named George Brett to do it, but defensively the difference couldn’t be more stark. Tartabull would be a top candidate for the worst defensive regular starter in either league, and if he were not able to justify his shortcomings with the bat, I would not hesitate to call up the more well-rounded Jermaine Dye.
The one silver lining is that with Alex Gordon, Amos Otis and Willie Wilson all on the team, the Royals should have at least one Gold Glove caliber outfielder to turn to for a late-game defensive substitution.
Because of this, the Royals lineup winds up being very top heavy; aside from Brett, there is no dominant offensive player.
In terms of righty/lefty match-ups, the Royals are relatively equal on both sides. The overall lineup is righty heavy, but Brett would not be in the Hall of Fame if he carried the same numbers against right-handed pitchers that he did aganst lefties. This isn’t to say Brett was terrible against lefties, he was just not as impressive. His 3,000 career hits should tell you just how great he was against righties.
Conclusions
Of the 36 teams that will be featured, 35 have their best relief pitcher listed as the closer. The Royals are the exception. I would expect stiff competition all year from Oakland and Minnesota which, like Kansas City, will also feature a pretty solid rotation, but few bullpens can come close to Kansas City’s.
As it was during his career, a lot of the weight is going to fall on Brett to carry the offense. As he goes I would expect the Royals to go, but for the team to succeed, somebody else on that offense would need to step up.
Overall I would consider the Royals the worst team with a chance to win the World Series in this all-time league, and it’s because of the bullpen. To be clear, the list of teams that could realistically win the World Series also includes the Red Sox, the Reds, the Indians, the LA Dodgers and the Phillies. among. others. I don’t think they will do it, but I could envision the scenario.
For the most part, on a team like the Royals, a starter doesn’t need to go more than five innings. That’s probably all Charlie Leibrandt would be good for, but it’s all the Royals may need him to be. This is a modern game. The bullpen is going to matter a lot and this is where the Royals close the gap.
nice post!! thanks for sharing……
annotated bibliography sample
You read my mind about David Cone (even the statement about only Clemens being a better AL pitcher in the 90s). People really forgot just how great he was, which is odd considering he played for the Yankees, won a Cy Young and 5 World Series. In my mind he has a better Hall case than his long-time teammate Andy Pettite.
This team, more than any of the other ones featured thus far, has been hurt by considering only a player’s career with that team. Johnny Damon and Zack Greinke, along with David Cone would fall into this category. I think this is driven by the fact that they are a small market team in the free agent era.
This is also a team that is very dependent upon its home park. If the team can play on the 70s Astroturf, they can probably beat anyone. The stadium was a house of horrors for most of the power-heavy AL East teams then and would probably be the same in this league.
With both Cone and Kevin Brown I think the fact that they spent the better parts of their careers as “hired guns” is part of the reason why they haven’t gotten more HOF support.
If they were ever inducted what cap would they wear? There isn’t a clear cut answer with either pitcher.
As for teams being effected by careers being curtailed, it’s going to hold true for any franchise that spent most of their years playing in the free agency era.
I don’t think the effect is nearly as great as some may think it is, but with guys like Cone, Beltran and Damon it clearly shows. Even with current guys. Had Wade Davis never left he probably would have taken over Montgomery’s role as closer.
FWIW. In the middle of an article Bill James wrote this about Kevin Brown. “Randy Jones, Vern Kennedy, Joe Horlen, Kevin Brown and Dutch the Knuckler are considered to have been meaningfully better pitchers than their career won-lost records reflect.”
http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_career_won-lost_record/
Hi Paul,
A great post as always.
Couple of quibbles/questions:
Alcides Escobar at SS as compared to UL Washington. Both are weak hitters and both have an identical slugging percentage of .343. However, Washington had a higher on base percentage (.313 vs .293) and his OPS+ of 82 is higher than Escobar’s 73. Of course, Washington had the better tooth pick.
Also, seems like the late 70s pitchers are under-rated on this team. The Royals’ all-time leader in Wins (Paul Splittorff with 166 wins) is not on the roster which seems strange. Splitorff was the Royal’s first 20-game winner and his career 23.5 WAR is higher than Busby’s 15.2 WAR and his wins total greatly exceed Busby’s 70. Splittorff also received CY Young votes in ’78.
Likewise, while Dennis Leonard is on the roster, he deserves to be in the starting rotation over Charlie Leibrandt. If considering peak, Leonard had three 20 win seasons with the Royals while Leibrandt never even won 20, peaking at 17. Leonard received Cy Young votes twice, in ’77 and ’78, while Leibrandt received Cy Young votes only once, in ’85. If considering career. Leaonard’s 144 wins, .576 winning percentage and 26.3 WAR exceed Leibrandt’s 76 wins, .554 winning percentage and 23.1 WAR.
With Washington versus Escoabr, where Escobar gets him is mainly on defense. Washington only had one year where he’s over 1 in defensive WAR versus Escobar’s three.
With Leonard versus Leibrandt I think this is a good example of how this system works, because on the surface it does look like Leonard should beat him out for all the reasons you listed.
But what this keys in on is peak dominance and between the two pitchers there are four seasons where they had a WAR of at least five. Three of them belong to Leibrandt and to me that’s one of the differences between having a team that goes to the ALCS and a team that wins the World Series.
For me Leibrandt falls into the not an HOFer, but a lot closer than you think category. He is one of your five-ten best lefties in baseball in more than one season.
Soria was not on the Royals when they won the AL in 2014 & 2015. That bullpen was backboned by Herrera, Davis and Holland.
First and most important, Dick Howser was most certainly not fired, and it is indeed “a headscratcher” how someone who’s spent time researching past Royals could have thought he was. Howser managed the club up until the 1986 All-Star game (he managed the AL in that game, his last as a manager). On July 3, 1986 he was diagnosed with a brain tumor, and he passed away from it in 1987.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/236819132/remembering-dick-howser-30-years-later/
Howser’s #10 is one of only 3 numbers retired by the Royals (the others George Brett’s #5, Frank White’s #20).
Second, though a definitive answer to the question of why Whitey Herzog was fired will probably never exist, since Ewing Kauffman and Joe Burke (the Royals GM at the time) were tight-lipped about it, but it was no secret even at the time that Kauffman and Herzog never hit it off and time only made the relationship worse. Whitey has talked about it a fair bit and the quotes are out there – “a two way street” more or less encapsulates it.
Finally, the Frey thing only seems weird in retrospect, because the 1981 cluib was dead and had more or less stopped playing for Frey. Dan Quisenberry said at the time “he won’t be missed by many of the players.”
I always thought Dick Howser had to take leave because of his brain cancer diagnosis instead of being fired. Shows what I know.
He was and that is a mistake on my part.
The overall point about the Royals having quick triggers with managers still stands, but he Howser shouldn’t have been lumped in.
Love this series, but there a few things I don’t understand about this article/roster.
1. “Although the franchise lineage includes the Kansas City Athletics, just one player from the era, Norm Siebern, made the 40-man roster…” What about Lumpe and Causey?
2. Mike Sweeney at backup catcher and starting DH? That seems really cheap to me. Sweeney was a bad hitter when he played catcher and only became a good hitter after giving catching up. At no point in his career would he ever have been a suitable DH and catcher.
1. Mistake on my part. Just forgot to look them up.
2. It’s a little with guys like Sweeney becuase I’m basically envisioning a player that never existed which I try to avoid as much as possible, but in some cases there’s no getting around it and this is one of them.
How much of an impact did giving up catching have on Sweeney’s offensive numbers? No doubt some, but the exact figure is impossible to tell.
The is also where the concept of value vs talent butt heads because I am using Sweeney in a way that he was never asked to do, mainly Royals were never in a position where something like this would even be a considered option. And I’m basing his ability to do this on numbers he put up without ever having to do this.
There’s multiple ways of attacking this issue. I don’t think any particular one is the “right” way because they all have their drawbacks. This is just the one that I think gets it the closest.
Hey Paul, can see that you, and the others in the comments section, do not mention STEVE BALBONY…Why?
Solid player and even a better character, but unfortunately he’s on a team where two of the three best first baseman (Brett and Sweeney) will hardly ever even play the position if they do at all.
Why wouldn’t Alex Rodriguez be the all star third baseman?
I would only be considering his tenure with the Yankees which I feel puts him a tier below guys like Boggs, Mathews and Brett even though he’s a better overall player than all three.
That being he could surprise people and get the nod. We’ll never for sure because there’s no way of actually testing any of this.
This does not seem like a very strong team, even the pitching. The 2017 Dodgers roster could take these guys down.
Might I point out that Dick howser was diagnosed with a brain tumor and was unable to continue his managerial duties. Dick attempted a comeback during spring training but was too weak. He died 3 months latter. He was not fired.
Already been addressed in a previous comment.
Oversight on my part with the larger point I was trying to make still standing.
KC Royals are in AL Central, not West. How come Salvy is highlighted but not Cain or Herrera in one of your lists.
The Royals were in the AL West pre-1994, back when there were only two divisions in each league.
In the setup of this league they are in the AL West along with the Angels, Oakland A’s, Twins, Mariners and Rangers.
The Central in this fantasy league features the Indians, White Sox, Tigers, Rays, Brewers and Browns.
Since you’re using the current approach to constructing rosters, how about adding Bo Jackson as Strength and Conditioning Coach?
I have no problem if people want to imagine it.
Aside from a handful of picks by in large I would take the coaching selections with a grain of salt.
WHERE WAS BO JACKSON?????
No Bo?
Bo Jackson, by himself, 10-run rules the MLB all-time All-Star team after he bats in the bottom half of the 1st inning. It’s easy to understand why Mr. Moehringer didn’t include him because it would be a brief series of articles. I cannot confirm nor deny he’s getting paid by the typed word.
I’m not a big sabermetrics guy and I’m too old to start trying to learn all that stuff at this point, but seriously, not a lot of this makes sense to me. Let’s start with the coaching staff, Whitey, Lau and Cisco were actually coaches with KC. Yost was never a coach, went from special assistant, i believe into the manager’s spot.
I personally don’t remember it but AO only started 43 games in right throughout his career and only played in right 45 times. Certainly does not seem to be enough to rate 3rd on the depth chart. By the same token, Willie Wilson only started 21 games in right and only played in 31. At the very least the two of them should be reversed on the depth chart.
Having Alex Gordon #2 on the depth chart at third, is almost as ludicrous as having Darrell Porter and Mike Sweeney catching over Salvy.
And could someone please tell me in what world do you have John Mayberry batting leadoff?
Sorry, those are just a few of the questions I have on this pyramid system. Maybe there is an explanation I missed on how these results were arrived at, but frankly, my head hurts after looking at all this drivel.
very good but i think one team per is bad and not having each franchise
My main motivation behind it was to include as many players as possible and not constantly talk about guys like Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan who were good enough to make multiple teams.
It also adds an extra degree of complexity complexity that normally doesn’t exist with things like this and makes it a lot more challenging than most people realize.
Pardon me, but if memory serves Dick Howser was not fired by the Royals. He was forced to retire because of brain cancer that took his life in 1987. His is one of only three numbers retired by the Royals.
Couple comments:
One of the (admittedly necessary) limitations to this exercise requires you to rely on MLB performance and longevity. With the Royals this is particularly damaging because it leaves out the greatest talent to play for the Royal: Bo Jackson. The last two seasons before his (football) career ending hip injury he had an OPS+ of 124 and 142. He was clearly getting better. In a fictional world where we can resurrect old stars for our baseball watching pleasure it is almost certain Bo would be the baseball only superstar we all wish he was and definitely on this team.
Also since this is a league, presumably these teams need a place to play and something to wear. It would be super fun to use much of the same analysis of the players on a team level (success, longevity, signature moments) to select a home stadium configuration from the team’s past (or present) and a home and away uniform combination. For example, the Royals would have an interesting choice between the original Kauffman stadium configuration (turf, fountains only in right) used in the 80’s heyday and the current, renovated configuration with grass and fountains all around representing their current success. They could wear their current home whites and their 80’s away blues as a way to represent both of their most successful eras.