The upstarts and letdowns of 2007

With spring training right around the corner, everybody will be picking their candidates to surprise and disappoint in the coming year. While the exact definitions of “breakout” and “collapse” can be debated, I have a simple method: Guess what a player will do next year, and if he does substantially better, he was a surprise; if he does substantially worse, he was a disappointment.

In that spirit, let’s take a look back at last year’s over- and underperformers among hitters. We’ll compare each player’s actual performance with that predicted by the THT 2007 preseason book. The difference could be due to luck, skill change, or just a crummy projection (you can decide that last one for yourself).

We ran this exercise at the All-Star break if you’d like to compare the names here to those on the midyear lists.

Average

Batting average (>250 PA)
Player                Actual  Projected  Diff
Matt R Kemp           .342    .254       +.088
Magglio Ordonez       .363    .290       +.073
Hanley Ramirez        .331    .259       +.072
Jorge Posada          .337    .267       +.070
James A Loney         .331    .268       +.063
Norris S Hopper       .328    .268       +.060
Dmitri Young          .319    .261       +.058
Matt Diaz             .337    .282       +.055
Ryan Ludwick          .267    .213       +.054
Mike Lowell           .324    .270       +.054
...
Adam Kennedy          .218    .269       -.050
Dave Ross             .202    .253       -.050
Andruw Jones          .222    .273       -.050
Lyle Overbay          .240    .291       -.051
Carlos J Quentin      .213    .265       -.051
Jason Kendall         .226    .283       -.056
Nick Punto            .209    .270       -.060
Dioner F Navarro      .226    .288       -.061
Jamey Carroll         .224    .288       -.063
Ray Durham            .217    .287       -.069

If we polled the fan population to choose players who had out-of-the-blue awesome years in 2007, I suspect that Jorge Posada, Magglio Ordonez, Dmitri Young and Mike Lowell would all be named. All outdid their projected batting averages by wide margins. While batting average is a skill prone to fluctuation—a few seeing-eye grounders here, a bloop over the infield there—it drives the value of many hitters.

Take Magglio Ordonez: Had he hit .290 as his projection prophesied and produced extra-base hits in the same ratio as he did, his seasonal line would have been .290/.370/.475—good production, even for a corner outfielder, but nothing close to his MVP-type real-world batting line of .363/.434/.595. Similarly, Norris Hopper would have gone from a highly acceptable .329/.371/.388 to an optioned-back-to-Triple-A .268/.329/.316. Andruw Jones’ .222 BA cost him big bucks—had he hit .273, he would have had an .860 OPS, 32 home runs, and enough money to buy a solid gold house and a rocket car. Instead, he’ll have to settle for just the rocket car.

Now, that’s not to say that these players didn’t “deserve” their high or low batting averages (though it’s always worth checking out their batted-ball distribution at our stat pages). After all, they put bat on ball and ended up on base instead of in the dugout (or not). It’s just that hitters provide a great deal of value when they hit for high averages, and predicting batting averages is a tough thing to do, indeed. With some of these players, you can argue that they are young and improving (Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp); with others, that they are old and cooked (Jason Kendall, Ray Durham). But sometimes, it’s just inexplicable.

BABIP

Batting average on balls in play (>250 PA)
Player                Actual  Projected  Diff
Matt R Kemp           .410    .301       +.109
Jorge Posada          .386    .295       +.090
B.J. Upton            .393    .310       +.082
Norris S Hopper       .367    .290       +.077
Chone Figgins         .390    .317       +.072
Magglio Ordonez       .381    .308       +.072
Nook Logan            .358    .288       +.069
Howie  Kendrick       .380    .314       +.066
Matt Diaz             .378    .317       +.060
Reggie G Willits      .357    .297       +.060
...
Nick Punto            .255    .307       -.052
John R Buck           .242    .295       -.053
Lyle Overbay          .270    .327       -.057
Ray Durham            .232    .295       -.062
Dave Ross             .225    .290       -.065
Dioner F Navarro      .249    .317       -.067
Jason Kendall         .240    .309       -.068
Adam Kennedy          .237    .308       -.070
Jamey Carroll         .252    .325       -.072
Richie Sexson         .216    .290       -.073

Presented without comment. Well, one: This is not actual BABIP versus “expected” BABIP based on 2007 batted-ball data; it’s actual BABIP versus projected BABIP, with the projection based on regressed batted-ball data prior to the 2007 season. Make of this what you will.

Power

Isolated slugging (>250 PA)
Player                Actual  Projected  Diff
Carlos Pena           .344    .164       +.180
Prince G Fielder      .329    .217       +.112
Matt Stairs           .260    .165       +.095
Hanley Ramirez        .230    .141       +.089
Jimmy Rollins         .234    .149       +.085
Alex Rodriguez        .331    .246       +.085
B.J. Upton            .208    .124       +.084
Franklin R Gutierrez  .206    .127       +.079
Curtis Granderson     .250    .173       +.077
Josh Fields           .235    .160       +.075
...			
Jacque Jones          .114    .189       -.074
Javier Valentin       .111    .186       -.074
Trot Nixon            .084    .163       -.078
Manny Ramirez         .196    .276       -.079
Albert Pujols         .240    .321       -.080
Scott Rolen           .132    .217       -.084
Nomar Garciaparra     .088    .177       -.088
Jim Edmonds           .150    .245       -.094
Travis Hafner         .185    .287       -.101
Frank Thomas          .203    .308       -.104

Whoa. Some guys with very good track records just didn’t get the job done this year. Frank Thomas, Travis Hafner and Manny Ramirez are some of the most powerful hitters in the league, and all saw a big drop-off in their isolated slugging. Age? Injury? Fluke? You be the judge. On the other hand, Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez upped their already considerable power to lofty heights. And look here: The MVPs of both leagues registered big power spikes in their historic years. Take note, aspiring ballplayers: If you want to win the MVP, the first rule is to be on a playoff team; the second rule is to hit the ball far.

Moreso than the aforementioned Posada, Ordonez, Young and Lowell, Carlos Pena almost inarguably had the biggest “Where the heck did that come from?” season. In what was looming at his last chance in the majors (signed to a minor league contract by the Devil Rays!), Pena blasted 46 bombs, won Comeback Player of the Year, and was rewarded with a shiny three-year contract.

Can he continue to hit home runs at that pace? I don’t know. But his homers weren’t cheapies. According to Hit Tracker Online, home runs can be classified as having “Just Enough,” “Plenty,” or “No Doubt” distance. The league-average distribution is 27%/55%/18%, respectively. Pena’s distribution? 23%/56%/21%. I would have guessed that the player with the biggest “how did that happen?” factor would have had his production driven by batting average. That was certainly not the case in the 2007 AL.

Patience

Walks per plate appearance (>250 PA)
Player                Actual  Projected  Diff
Rickie Weeks          .154    .082       +.071
Carlos Pena           .168    .112       +.055
Pat Burrell           .190    .140       +.049
Grady Sizemore        .135    .086       +.048
Jose Reyes            .100    .056       +.044
Jack Cust             .207    .166       +.040
Ryan J Howard         .165    .125       +.039
David A Wright        .132    .094       +.038
Brian Roberts         .124    .086       +.037
Magglio Ordonez       .111    .075       +.036
...
Ryan Freel            .059    .094       -.035
Mike Sweeney          .058    .095       -.036
Ivan Rodriguez        .017    .054       -.037
Jason Kendall         .038    .080       -.041
Jason Giambi          .132    .173       -.041
Mike Piazza           .054    .099       -.044
Carlos Delgado        .085    .130       -.044
Jim Edmonds           .099    .144       -.044
Bobby Abreu           .120    .166       -.046
Marcus Thames         .045    .094       -.048

Is it good or bad when a player walks up a storm? As a fan of lead-footed outfielders with bad gloves, I was an avid follower of Jeremy Giambi back in the day. In 210 plate appearances with the Phillies in 2002, Giambi walked an incredible 52 times! A year later, he had fallen off the big-league map.

I don’t want to be accused of being a 1999-era stathead, but take a look at the players who outdid their projected walks: Those were some of the most valuable players in the big leagues last year. Now look at the disappointing players whose walk rates collapsed. I know, I know—walks aren’t the be-all and end-all. They don’t drive in runs. They don’t advance runners. Guys who walk with runners in scoring position ought to have their manliness questioned by sports radio commentators. Et cetera. Still… those are pretty compelling lists.

Is it possible that some of the positive differences emerge from a Jim Rice-ian fear factor? It could just be that as guys become better hitters, pitchers elect to throw less-hittable pitches, which in turn leads to more walks than might be expected. And while he was a great player in his halcyon days, which pitcher is afraid to throw a strike to Jason Kendall? Pitchf/x gurus, this could be an interesting thing to look at.

Contact

Strikeouts per plate appearance (>250 PA)
Player                Actual  Projected  Diff
Craig Biggio          .201    .143       +.058
Craig Monroe          .252    .194       +.057
B.J. Upton            .281    .225       +.055
Brandon Inge          .259    .205       +.054
Jack Cust             .323    .270       +.052
Brad Ausmus           .186    .135       +.050
Carlos J Quentin      .205    .156       +.049
Jonny Gomes           .319    .271       +.048
Carl Crawford         .178    .131       +.046
Jay Gibbons           .179    .133       +.045
...
Jacque Jones          .141    .201       -.059
Javier Valentin       .094    .154       -.060
Dmitri Young          .145    .206       -.060
Kevin Mench           .068    .132       -.064
Mike A Napoli         .239    .305       -.066
Tony F Pena           .145    .212       -.067
Jose A Bautista       .164    .236       -.072
Austin Kearns         .157    .230       -.073
Corey Patterson       .129    .207       -.078
Ryan Ludwick          .212    .315       -.103

Strikeouts are a funny thing. From a value perspective, they’re not that much worse than other outs, save for the whole moving-runners-along thing. But a high number of strikeouts can portend bad things—just ask Jay Gibbons, Craig Biggio, Craig Monroe and Jonny Gomes, each of whom may not be long for the majors.

And young hitters like Carlos Quentin and B.J. Upton would do well to cut down on their strikeouts. According to Tangotiger, young hitters strike out a lot, cut their strikeouts as they reach their peak years, and then go back to striking out more frequently. Presumably, the dip in strikeouts through their peak years is a result of their tools matching their skills, while the uptick as they age comes from their physical tools failing them. Maybe that’s why guys who are entering their primes, such as Mike Napoli and Austin Kearns, appear at the bottom of this list. Maybe.

So which players are going to over- or underperform their projections in 2008? I don’t know, and I won’t dare guess. But if you like to go a-predicting, Tangotiger will take you on. Try your luck if you’re the risk-taking type!

References & Resources
Hey, speaking of projections, did you know the THT Season Preview 2008 is coming out soon? I hear from unbiased sources that it’s awesome, and it’s chock full of projections utilizing the latest technology in batted-ball data and statistical alchemy.